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美国近期推行的单边主义对等关税政策对全球贸易体系构成系统性冲击，加剧了全球经济秩序的不确定性。研究发现：首先，当美国征收34%对等关税时导致的出口下降将占中美贸易逆差的59.30%—69.74%;84%关税导致的出口下降将占中美贸易逆差的142.36%—168.18%;若对等关税提升至125%,我国对美出口将无剩余空间。其中，电机、电气设备及其零件等五大类行业受关税影响最大，而钢铁制品、车辆及其零件等行业的中间品出口下降额占比更高。其次，对等关税将会导致我国出口贸易对欧盟、东盟、日本等地产生不同程度的贸易转移效应，且受到征收关税水平的递增而不断提高。再次，对等关税政策带来的主要挑战包括：出口成本攀升、供应链调整难度加大、科技遏制加剧等。最后，亟须通过加速开辟国内外多元市场、优化全球供应链布局和物流体系以及加大技术优势和标准制定权，构建系统性的应对策略体系，重塑我国全球贸易竞争新优势。
Abstract：The recent unilateral reciprocal tariffs implemented by the United States constitute a systemic shock to the global trade system and exacerbates the uncertainty of the global economic order. The findings are as follows: Firstly, we find that when the U. S. imposes a 34% reciprocal tariff, the resulting decline in exports will account for nearly 59. 30% —69. 74% of the China-US trade deficit. The decline in exports caused by an 84% tariff will account for nearly 142. 36% —168. 18% of the trade deficit, and if the reciprocal tariff is raised to 125%, there will be no remaining space for our exports to the U. S. Five major industries including motors, electrical equipment and their parts are the most affected by these tariffs, and the decline in intermediate goods exports in the steel products, vehicles and their parts industries is relatively high. Furthermore, reciprocal tariffs will cause varying degrees of trade diversion effects on China's export trade to the EU, ASEAN, Japan and other regions, and this will continue to increase due to the rising tariff levels. Moreover, based on data analysis, reciprocal tariffs will bring challenges such as rising export costs,increasing the difficulty of supply chain adjustment, and intensifying technological containment. Lastly, it is urgent to build a systematic response strategy system to reshape China's new advantages in global trade competition by accelerating the development of diversified domestic and foreign markets, optimizing the layout of global supply chains and logistic system, and enhancing technological advantages and standard-setting rights.
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(4)联合国分类法(BEC:Broad Economic Catalog)是按照商品经济类别综合汇总国际贸易数据制定的。具体来说,其按照国际贸易商品的主要最终用途,把国际贸易标准分类的基本项目编号重新组合,进而再次排列编制而成。联合国分类法(BEC)采用三位数编码结构,其把全部国际贸易商品分为19个基本类别,这19个基本类别可根据最终用途划分为资本品、中间品和消费品三大类。
基本信息:
DOI：10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2025.05.001
中图分类号:F757.12;F752.7
引用信息:
[1]吕越,张伊华,何梦雅.美国对等关税政策对我国贸易的影响及应对策略[J].商业经济与管理,2025,No.403(05):5-17.DOI:10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2025.05.001.
基金信息:
2024年北京市社会科学基金青年学术带头人项目“新质生产力赋能我国产业链供应链韧性研究”(24DTR021)
2025-06-13
2025
2025-07-04
2025
1
2025-05-15
2025-05-15