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系统把握消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期运行规律与联动机制,是提升我国消费需求与旅游消费需求的协同增长水平、促进需求结构转型升级的关键。文章基于宏观动态演进视角,构建马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型(MS-VAR),通过变量协整分析、模型拟合、周期阶段划分以及格兰杰因果关系检验等动态计量分析过程探究二者周期联动规律。结果证实,消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期波动具有同步性,且这一关系形式实则是消费需求周期波动引发旅游消费需求同步变动的结果。文章认为,二者周期同步变动本质上是经济转型过程中,消费结构根据实际购买力水平和消费倾向,不断变更总体消费规模和服务型消费比重,以实现整体消费与局部支出协同增长的自组织与他组织过程。增强二者协同增长水平和推动消费结构优化转型,则需要产业政策与消费政策的共同调节和适时引导。
Abstract：Systematically grasping the linkage regulation between the cyclical fluctuation of the consumption demand and the domestic tourism consumption demand is the key to guiding the cooperative growth of the consumption demand and the domestic tourism consumption demand and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the demand structure. Based on the perspective of macro dynamic evolution,the MS-VAR model is constructed for an empirical study on the relationship between the consumption demand and the domestic tourism consumption demand by means of economic variables co-integration analysis,optimal model textingperiodic stage division and Grainger causality test. The results show that the cyclical fluctuations of the consumption demand and the domestic tourism consumption demand are synchronized. And the regularity is actually resulted from the influence of the consumption demand cyclical fluctuation on the synchronous change of the tourism consumption demand. We argue that the process of the two cycles change synchronously is one of economic transformation. The overall consumption structure is changed in the overall consumption demand scale and the service consumption expenditure proportion according to the actual income level and consumption propensity for the self-organization and heter-organization process of the co-growth between the overall consumption and partial expenditure. To improve the coordinated growth of the consumption demand and the domestic tourism consumption demand or promote the transformation of consumption structure,the joint adjustment and timely guidance of industrial policies and consumption policies are required.
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(1)这一结论并未否定旅游消费需求对消费总需求增长的拉动作用。
基本信息:
DOI：10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2018.01.005
中图分类号:F126.1;F592
引用信息:
[1]李维维,虞虎,王新歌,等.消费需求与国内旅游消费需求的周期性波动同步吗——基于MS-VAR模型时变特征的分析[J].商业经济与管理,2018,No.315(01):49-60.DOI:10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2018.01.005.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目“城市旅游综合体的时空演化机制及其对区域旅游格局的影响研究”(41471131); 南开大学百名青年学科带领人计划资助
2018-01-15
2018-01-15