商业经济与管理

面对出口贸易限制增多的压力,提升我国民营企业出口生存概率具有重要的现实意义。通过考察资本配置扭曲对我国民营企业出口生存时间和生存概率的影响效应、渠道和后果。结果发现:民营企业的出口市场进入率和退出率高于国有企业,民营企业在出口4年以后生存率大幅下降;资本配置扭曲程度越高则民营企业退出出口市场的概率越大、生存时间越短;从驱动因素来看,全要素生产率提升和资本密集度下降是资本配置扭曲降低民营企业出口生存率的重要渠道;异质性分析表明,资本配置扭曲提高对沿海城市、资本密集型以及2002年以后民营企业出口危险率的促进作用更大。

Facing the increasing pressure of export trade restrictions, it is of great practical significance to improve the export survival probability of China's private enterprises. This paper systematically studies the effects, channels and consequences of capital allocation distortion on the export survival time and survival probability of private enterprises in China. The results of this paper show that the entry and exit rate of private enterprises in export market are higher than that of state-owned enterprises, and the export survival rate of private enterprises four years later greatly reduced. When the degree of capital allocation distortion grows, the probability of private enterprises exiting from the export market rises, and the survival time becomes shorter. From the perspective of driving factors, the improvement of total factor productivity and the decrease of capital intensity are important channels for the distortion of capital allocation to reduce the export survival rate of private enterprises. The analysis of heterogeneity shows that the increase of capital allocation distortion has a greater promoting effect on the export risk of coastal cities, capital intensive and private enterprises after 2002.