商业经济与管理

本文从财务危机的预警机理出发,选取能反映企业财务安全的“现金制”指标,采用主成分分析法,通过对我国上市公司财务危机状况的实证研究,建立了上市公司财务预警模型———T分数模型。该模型针对目前以“ST”作为财务困境企业的分界点不能准确判断出企业是否有足够的现金流、是否能够真正避免财务危机这一现状,结合本文给出的各项现金类指标,能够从企业现金流的角度判断企业是否存在财务困境、能否偿还各类到期利息及债务,为企业提供了一个更为准确的预测自身财务危机的工具。

This article,based on the principle of financial distress,selecting most of the financial indicators from cash flow and using the principal component analysis performs an empirical study on listed companies of China and establisheds a financial forecast model-T model.Aiming at the present situation using the "ST" as financial distress boundary can't help judge accurately whether enterprises have enough cash flow and whether this current situation of financial crisis can be really avoided.By combining every cash index this text provided,we can make a judgment on whether a company has financial distress or whether it can pay all the debts and interest before the deadline from the view of cash flows and using the principal component analysis as the tool,so we provide a much more accurate tool of predicting the financial distress for enterprise itself.