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文章基于2001-2016年宏观经济季度数据,构建涵盖产出效应、价格效应与结构效应的三组方程,考察了中国金融业双向开放对货币政策效应的影响。结果显示金融业双向开放对货币政策效应的影响具有显著非对称性。在产出效应方面,对外开放度提高显著强化了利率产出效应,对内和对外开放度提高均弱化了货币供给和汇率变动的产出效应;在价格效应方面,对外开放度提高弱化了利率的价格效应,强化了货币供给和汇率变动的价格效应,而对内开放度提高对货币供给、利率及汇率变动的价格效应影响均不显著;在结构效应方面,对内开放度提高对利率变动结构效应作用不显著,对内和对外开放度提高均显著强化了货币供给和汇率变动的结构效应。
Abstract：Based on the quarterly data of China from 2001 to 2016,this paper established three sets of equations covering the effect of output,price and structure and investigated the impact of two-way opening of financial industry on the effectiveness of the monetary policy. The results show that the impact of two-way financial openness on the monetary policy effectiveness is asymmetric.In terms of output effect,in addition to out-oriented openness significantly strengthening the output effect of interest rate,two-way financial openness weakens the output effect caused by the money supply and exchange rate. In the price effect aspects,out-oriented openness significantly weakens the price effect of interest rate and strengthens the price effect of money supply and exchange rate.Inner-oriented openness has insignificant effect on the price effect of money supply,interest and exchange rate. In the structure effect aspects,in addition to inner-oriented openness insignificantly impacting on the structure effect of interest rate,two-way financial openness strengthens the structure effect caused by the money supply and exchange rate.
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(1)对产出效应的说明:随着金融业双向开放度提高,货币供给量增加(减少)、利率下降(上升)以及汇率贬值(升值)能够引起更大幅度产出增加(减少),则认为金融业开放度提高强化了货币政策的产出效应,反之则认为弱化了货币政策产出效应。
(2)对价格效应的说明:随着金融业双向开放度提高,货币供给量增加(减少)、利率下降(上升)以及汇率贬值(升值)能够引起更大幅度物价水平上升(下降),则认为金融业开放度提高强化了货币政策的价格效应,反之则认为弱化了货币政策价格效应。
(3)对结构效应的说明:随着金融业双向开放度提高,货币供给量增加(减少)、利率下降(上升)以及汇率升值(贬值)能够引起更大幅度第三产业比重上升(下降),则认为金融业开放度提高强化了货币政策的结构效应,反之则认为弱化了货币政策结构效应。
基本信息:
DOI：10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2017.11.008
中图分类号:F125;F822.0;F832
引用信息:
[1]钱水土,张宇.中国金融业双向开放对货币政策效应的影响研究[J].商业经济与管理,2017,No.313(11):84-96.DOI:10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2017.11.008.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目“基于社会融资规模视角的中国货币政策调控创新研究”(17CJL009)
2017-11-15
2017-11-15