商业经济与管理

随着国际旅游的迅速发展,入境旅游需求成为旅游领域值得深入探讨的热点问题。本文基于1988-2008年中国11个主要客源国的数据,采用"一般到简单"建模法分析了中国入境旅游需求的主要影响因素和客源国的旅游需求弹性,预测了2009-2017年各国的旅华人数。研究表明,旅游者的忠诚是决定中国入境旅游需求最重要的影响因素;中国的旅游价格、客源国的经济条件、替代目的地的价格和特殊事件的作用也很明显;中国入境旅游人数将仍会增长,其中韩国将成为中国最大的客源市场。通过对旅游需求弹性的分析和旅游人数的预测可以判断各国旅游业发展状况和趋势,从而为中国制定正确的旅游经济发展政策提供科学的依据。

With the rapid development of international tourism, inbound tourism demand analysis has been a hot topic in the tourism field. Based on the data of 11 major origin countries from 1988 to 2008, the paper analyzes the factors which contribute to the demand for China's inbound tourism with the aid of the general-to-specific modeling approach and the tourism demand elasticities of these origin countries, and forecasts the inbound tourism arrivals to China for the period 2009-2017. The empirical results show that the most important factor determining the demand for China tourism by the origin countries is loyalty of tourists. The tourism price in China, economic condition in the origin countries, price in the substitute destination and special events also play significant roles in determining the demand for China tourism. The demand for China tourism will continue increasing, and Korea is predicted to be the largest source market for China tourism. We can know the development trend of tourism by analyzing the demand elasticities and conducting the forecasts of tourism arrivals, on which tourism development policy-making of China rely.