商业经济与管理

在当前美国主导的全球价值链(GVC)重构背景下，中国产业链正呈现规模化、集中性外迁特征，这种被动、裹挟式外迁对中国制造业GVC分工地位的影响亟须引起关注。以产业链外迁影响中国制造业GVC分工地位的理论机制为先导，采用OECD-ICIO数据库(2023)的数据，系统揭示了GVC重构下产业链外迁对中国制造业GVC分工地位的直接和间接影响机制。研究发现，中国产业链外迁不仅对其制造业GVC分工地位具有显著直接负面影响，还通过技术溢出、产业升级和市场份额三种中介机制产生间接影响，阻碍中国制造业GVC分工地位提升。其中，市场份额受产业链外迁的即时冲击最强，且难以被快速替代，解释力最高；产业升级的影响因滞后性和部分抵消效应弱于市场份额；技术溢出则因国内技术获取能力提升和外迁环节低技术属性，负面影响被大幅稀释，解释力最低。本研究不仅为缓冲产业链外迁冲击、稳固制造业GVC分工地位提供理论依据，更对中国在GVC重构中把握主动权、构建自主可控且开放包容的现代化产业体系具有重要现实意义。

Against the backdrop of the US-led global value chain( GVC) restructuring, China's industrial chains are undergoing large-scale and concentrated relocation. This passive and coerced relocation calls for close attention to its impact on China's manufacturing position in the GVC division of labor. Guided by the theoretical mechanism through which industrial chain relocation affects China's manufacturing GVC position, this study employs data from the OECD-ICIO Database( 2023) to systematically identify the direct and indirect impact mechanisms of industrial chain relocation on China's manufacturing GVC position in the context of GVC restructuring. The findings reveal that China's industrial chain relocation not only exerts a significant direct negative effect on its manufacturing GVC position, but also generates indirect effects through three mediating mechanisms—technology spillover, industrial upgrading, and market share—thereby hindering the improvement of China's manufacturing GVC position. Among these, market share is subject to the strongest and most immediate impact from industrial chain relocation, is difficult to replace quickly, and exhibits the highest explanatory power. The effect of industrial upgrading is weaker than that of market share due to its lagged nature and partial offsetting effects. Technology spillover shows the weakest explanatory power, as its negative impact is substantially diluted by the improvement in domestic technology acquisition capability and the low-tech nature of the relocated links. This study not only provides a theoretical basis for mitigating the impact of industrial chain relocation and stabilizing China's manufacturing GVC position, but also holds significant practical implications for China to seize the initiative in GVC restructuring and build a modern industrial system that is both independently controllable and open and inclusive.