| 1,194 | 15 | 84 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
文章以对冲COVID-19疫情影响的逆周期信贷政策实施作为“准自然实验”,运用PSM-DID模型，测度逆周期信贷政策对实体企业经营效率的影响(简称“逆周期信贷政策效用”),考察其企业资产负债表渠道与银行风险承担渠道的微观传导机制及路径，分析逆周期信贷政策效用的异质性。研究发现，逆周期信贷政策的实施显著修复了实体企业的经营效率，并具有随时间动态边际递增特征。同时，该政策具有“双渠道”传导特点，主要通过调节效应路径发挥作用。此外，该逆周期信贷政策效用受到企业性质、行业及区域的异质性影响。文章研究结论不仅拓展了现存文献，也为完善逆周期信贷政策设计和调控机制提供了决策参考依据。
Abstract：In this paper,the implementation of counter-cyclical credit policies to hedge against the impact of COVID-19 is taken as a quasi-natural experiment,and the PSM-DID model is used to measure the operational efficiency consequences of countercyclical credit policies for real enterprises (i.e.the utility of counter-cyclical credit policies),and to investigate the micro transmission mechanism and path of corporate balance sheet channel and bank risk-taking channel.This paper further analyzes the heterogeneity of the effectiveness of counter-cyclical credit policies.It is found that the implementation of counter-cyclical credit policies has significantly repaired the operational efficiency of real enterprises and has a dynamic marginal increase with time.At the same time,the policy has the characteristics of“dual channel”transmission,mainly through the effect of adjustment.In addition,the effectiveness of the counter-cyclical credit policies is affected by the heterogeneity of the enterprise nature,industry and region,and the counter-cyclical credit policies significantly improve the operating efficiency of private enterprises.The conclusion of this study not only expands the existing literature,but also provides a reference for improving the design and regulation mechanism of the countercyclical credit policies.
[1]MINSKY H P.Did monetary forces cause the great depression?[J].Challenge,1976,19(4):44-46.
[2]MINSKY H P.Stabilizing an unstable economy[J].Southern Economic Journal,1986,54(2):506-507.
[3]MINSKY H P.The capitalist development of the economy and the structure of financial institutions[J].SSRN Electronic Journal,1992,11(72):68-69.
[4]BERNANKE B S.Irreversibility,uncertainty,and cyclical investment[J].Nber Working Papers,1983,98(1):85-106.
[5]FRIEDMAN M,SCHWARTZ A J.A monetary history of the United States,1867—1960[M].New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1963:32-64.
[6]BERNANKE B S,BLINDER A S.Credit,money,and aggregate demand[J].The American Economic Review,1988,78(2):435-439.
[7]BERNANKE B S,GERTLER M.Agency costs,net worth and business fluctuations[J].American Economic Review,1989,79(1):14-31.
[8]BERNANKE B S,GERTLER M,GILCHRIST S.The financial accelerator and the flight to quality[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1996,78(1):1-15.
[9]BERNANKE B S,GERTLER M,GILCHRIST S.The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework[M].New York:Handbook of Macroeconornics,1999:1341-1393.
[10]BERNANKE B S,GERTLER M.Inside the black box:the credit channel of monetary policy transmission[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,1995,9(1):27-48.
[11]OLINER S D,RUDEBUSCH G D.Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?[J].Economic Review,1996,2(1):3-13.
[12]IBARRA R.How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico[J].Applied Economics,2016,48(34/36):3462-3484.
[13]ROMER C D,ROMER D H,GOLDFELD S M,et al.New evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1990,1(1):149-213.
[14]BERNANKE B S,GERTLER M.Agency costs,net worth and business fluctuations[J].American Economic Review,1989,79(1):14-31.
[15]朱新蓉，李虹含.货币政策传导的企业资产负债表渠道有效吗——基于2007—2013中国数据的实证检验[J].金融研究，2013(10):15-27.
[16]BORIO C,ZHU H.Capital regulation,risk-taking and monetary policy:a missing link in the transmission mechanism[J].Journal of Financial Stability,2012,8(4):236-251.
[17]金鹏辉，张翔，高峰.货币政策对银行风险承担的影响——基于银行业整体的研究[J].金融研究，2014(2):16-29.
[18]DELIS M D,KOURETAS G P.Interest rates and bank risk-taking[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2011,35(4):840-855.
[19]IOANNIDOU V,ONGENA S,PEYDRO J.Monetary policy,risk-taking,and pricing:evidence from a quasi-natural experiment[J].Review of Finance,2014,19(1):95-144.
[20]牛晓健，裘翔.利率与银行风险承担——基于中国上市银行的实证研究[J].金融研究，2013(4):15-28.
[21]张迎春，王璐，邓菊秋.货币政策、管理者心理偏差与银行风险承担[J].财经科学，2019(1):27-38.
[22]曹永琴.中国货币政策产业非对称效应实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究，2010(9):18-30,42.
[23]刘玄，王剑.货币政策传导地区差异：实证检验及政策含义[J].财经研究，2006(5):70-79.
[24]蒋益民，陈璋.SVAR模型框架下货币政策区域效应的实证研究：1978—2006[J].金融研究，2009(4):180-195.
[25]TONE K,TSUTSUI M.An epsilon based measure of efficiency in DEA-A third pole of technical efficiency[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,207(3):1554-1563.
[26]王卓.基于超效率DEA模型的我国工业企业效率评价[J].科学管理研究，2007(6):29-32.
[27]孟川瑾，邢斐，陈禹.基于DEA分析的房地产企业效率评价[J].管理评论，2008(7):57-62,64.
[28]樊秀峰，王美霞.我国零售企业经营效率评价与微观影响因素分析——基于22家百强零售上市公司的实证[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2011(3):26-31.
[29]周再清，甘易，胡月.商业银行同业资产特性与风险承担行为——基于中国银行业动态面板系统GMM的实证分析[J].国际金融研究，2017(7):66-75.
[30]段军山，杨帆，高洪民.存款保险、制度环境与商业银行风险承担——基于全球样本的经验证据[J].南开经济研究，2018(3):136-156.
[31]蒋海，黄敏.负债结构对银行风险承担的影响——基于中国上市银行的实证研究[J].国际金融研究，2017(7):54-65.
[32]邓向荣，张嘉明.货币政策、银行风险承担与银行流动性创造[J].世界经济，2018(4):28-52.
[33]PALIGOROVA T,SANTOS J.Monetary policy and bank risk-taking:evidence from the corporate loan market[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2017,30(30):35-49.
[34]王晋斌，李博.中国货币政策对商业银行风险承担行为的影响研究[J].世界经济，2017(1):25-43.
[35]何熙琼，尹长萍，毛洪涛.产业政策对企业投资效率的影响及其作用机制研究——基于银行信贷的中介作用与市场竞争的调节作用[J].南开管理评论，2016(5):161-170.
[36]陈燕丽，王磊，姜明栋，等.东北三省制造业上市公司企业绩效及影响因素研究——基于DEA-Malmquist-Tobit模型[J].工业技术经济，2018(11):51-57.
[37]李小林，常诗杰，司登奎.货币政策、经济不确定性与企业投资效率[J].国际金融研究，2021(7):86-96.
(1)中央银行联合五部委:《关于进一步强化金融支持防控新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情的通知》,银发2020年第29号文。
(2)例如,统计数据显示,2020年第一季度GDP增速-6.8%,全年经济增长承压。
(3)例如,统计数据显示,2020年2月中型企业和小型企业PMI分别为35.5%和34.1%,同比下降15.4个和14.5个百分点。
(4)孙亮:《金融加速器视角下货币政策冲击的产生效应研究》,上海社会科学出版社,2021第17-18页。
(5)Scott I.:The Regional Impact of Monetary Policy,Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,No.69.
(6)周小川:第九届《财经》年会“精确实体经济概念,更好支持实体经济发展”,新华社,2011-12-25。
(7)孙亮:《金融加速器视角下货币政策冲击的产出效应研究》,上海社会科学院出版社,2021,第19页。
(8)张辉、黄泽华:《我国货币政策和财政政策传导机制与宏观调控研究》,北京大学出版社,2016,第222页。
基本信息:
DOI：10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2022.06.007
中图分类号:F832.4
引用信息:
[1]肖虹,裘益政,刘巧瑜.新冠肺炎疫情下逆周期信贷政策效用研究：基于企业资产负债表渠道与银行风险承担渠道视角[J].商业经济与管理,2022,No.368(06):81-97.DOI:10.14134/j.cnki.cn33-1336/f.2022.06.007.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目“应对突发公共卫生事件的逆周期信贷支持机制及其效用评价”(20BGL088);国家社会科学基金项目“政商关系演变与民营企业融资行为的影响研究”(19BGL072)
2022-06-15
2022-06-15